AI Economic Signals
Tech Stocks Outpaced Tech Jobs
In May 2026, tech stocks vs the S&P 500 continued rising – up 247% since January 2006. Meanwhile, tech payroll share continued falling – down 22%.
AI Economic Signals
US Tech GDP Share Nears Record
In Q4 2025, the tech sector hit 5.61% of US GDP – the second-highest since 2005. It is now less than 0.1 percentage points from its Q2 2020 peak.
AI Economic Signals
Business Applications Breakout
In May 2026, business applications hit 523,971 - up 17% YoY. High-propensity applications hit 146,555 - up 4% YoY, lagging the broader breakout.
AI Economic Signals
US Productivity Growth Picked Up
In Q1 2026, US productivity growth reached 2.8% year-over-year. After the pandemic-era swing, it turned positive in Q1 2023 and has stayed positive.
AI Economic Signals
CS Enrollment Dropped In 2025
In fall 2025, undergraduate Computer Science enrollment dropped to 206,442 – down 11% from 2024. But enrollment remains 20% above 2020.
AI Economic Signals
Software Job Postings Slumped
In May 2026, software development job postings remained below their 2020 baseline in five of six countries. Only Australia remained above it at 19%.
AI Economic Signals
US Job Growth Is Concentrated
In May 2026, non-farm payrolls hit 159M – up 503K YoY. In percentage terms, Education & Health Services rose most (+2.2%) and Information fell (-2.8%).
AI Economic Signals
No AI Shock In Unemployment Yet
Since 2022, the overall US unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.3%. The 16-24 rate rose the most among the groups shown – from 8.5% to 9.5%.
AI Economic Signals
Tech Layoffs Are Rising Again
In the first five months of 2026, tech layoffs hit 116,304 – 8,332 short of the 2025 total. In May, the 3M moving average reached 26,712 – up 78% YoY.
AI Economic Signals
AI Is Showing Up In Job Postings
In April, Canada led the nine countries tracked, with AI terms showing in 16.4% of job postings on Indeed. Ireland and the UK followed at 13.6% and 8.3%.